Has Kadyrov turned on Putin?

Just how much of a grip does Vladimir Putin have on the situation currently unfolding in Ukraine? Over the weekend, the Ukrainian Army made a series of rapid advances, reportedly regaining control of as much as 3,000 square kilometres of formerly Russian-controlled territory. According to one Ukrainian commander, the counter-offensive had Russian soldiers fleeing for the border ‘like Olympic sprinters’.

In a sign of just how dire a situation the Russian war effort looks to be in, Chechen leader and Putin loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov took to social media to criticise the campaign. In a rambling voice note on the messaging app Telegram, Kadyrov slammed the Russian retreat from the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk.

‘I’m no strategist, unlike the Ministry of Defence, but mistakes have been allowed to happen…if today or tomorrow changes are not made to the strategy of how the special operation is conducted, I will feel obliged to speak to the Ministry of Defence and the country’s leadership and explain the reality of the situation on the ground to them.’

Kadyrov’s criticism is significant for several reasons. From the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he has committed troops to Putin’s war effort. In his voice note, he claimed that a further 10,000 soldiers were on standby to help recapture the lost ground. His fighters have a terrifying reputation and are said to be responsible for a significant portion of the war crimes carried out in the conflict so far, among them the massacre in the village of Bucha in the spring.

But Kadyrov’s criticism of the war’s progress is also important because of his personal loyalty to Putin. As early as 2005, while deputy Prime Minister of the Chechen Republic, Kadyrov said Putin ‘should be made president for life’ as ‘strong rule is needed’. Installed by Putin as president of the region in 2007, Kadyrov has continued to maintain a close relationship with him, endorsing his rule and supporting his foreign policy.

His decision to condemn the current state of the Kremlin’s campaign illustrates just how far up the chain of command discontent appears to be spreading. After all, statements such as Kadyrov’s could technically be considered an attempt to ‘discredit the Russian army’, something punishable with fines of up to 50,000 RUB (£715) – admittedly small fry for a warlord – and in some cases up to 15 years in prison.

Kadyrov’s is not the only prominent pro-war voice beginning to air gripes regarding the invasion. On 12 September, pro-Kremlin political commentator and former Putin advisor Sergei Markov also took to Telegram to demand more definitive action. Referencing the Kremlin’s efforts to put pressure on the West’s energy supplies, Markov fumed: ‘Stop dreaming that Europe will freeze this winter and that we won’t have to do anything, that it will happen by itself. No. Europe won’t freeze. People will just put on a few more hats and scarfs. Nothing will happen by itself. And you will just end up having to take serious action yourself.’ Whether the ‘you’ in Markov’s post is an appeal to his followers or to Putin, his view that Russia’s war is not going far enough is clear.

Other commentators, such as Aleksey Chadaev, have gone a step further, blaming the army’s losses on the Kremlin’s failure to mobilise the whole country, including the economy, production and manpower, towards war. Even for well-known, usually loyal, figures such as these, such critique is risky.

How vulnerable do these rumblings of discontent make Putin? So far the Kremlin is resisting the pressure to scale up its invasion. On Tuesday, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov ruled out mobilising Russia’s reserves to help regain territory in Ukraine. Putin will certainly look to double down on his invasion. How quickly and severely he does this, whether through domestic or military measures, will be a good indicator for how unsettled the Kremlin feels. But for now, westerners must resist becoming carried away with the notion that this dissent is somehow the beginning of the end for Putin or the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, there is still a long way to go.