Iran and Russia are probing Biden’s weaknesses

The world seems to have got a lot more dangerous since Joe Biden took office last January. It wasn’t long after his inauguration that Russian President Vladimir Putin started massing troops on Ukraine’s border. The Kremlin believes that its American opponent is old and weak, and began testing him as soon as he took office. Now war has come to the European continent once again.

Last night it was the turn of the Iranians to test Washington. According to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) at around 1:30 a.m., 12 missiles struck near a new US consulate under construction in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. ‘The attacks resulted in no casualties, and the missiles were launched from outside of Kurdistan and Iraq,’ the KRG’s anti-terror units reported.

As the analyst Seth Frantzman has observed, the consulate is not in the city centre and targeting it would require its coordinates to be tapped into the precision strikes of the ballistic-style missiles. The consulate was, then, the clear target. The attack is also very clearly an Iranian one. What’s striking – and new – is that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) took credit for the strike, releasing a statement in which they claimed they were targeting the Israeli ‘strategic centre’ in the country following Israel’s killing two Iranian members of the IRGC earlier this week in Syria. ‘Any repetition of attacks by Israel will be met with a harsh, decisive and destructive response,’ it said.

By all account the missiles came from ‘outside Iraq’. This means the Iranians were happy to let Washington know that not only were they behind the attack, but they had carried it out, too. Previously they had preferred to rely on proxies. Just over a year ago, I wrote in these pages of the missile strike by a mysterious militia group called Saraya Awliyah al-Dam that struck a base hosting US troops in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Back then the motive was clear: revenge for the US droning Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Quds force leader Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad at the beginning of 2020.

The hit rocked the Iranians. And they don’t forget. Everywhere they have presence you’ll see memorials and references to Soleimani, not least in Iraq. A quick glance at the Arabic-language messaging apps and chat boards reveals that users believe that the timing of last night’s attack – at around 1-130am – was deliberate: the same time of day that Soleimani was whacked. As ever, pro-Iran users (read: often trolls) claim Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz – through which a chunk of the world’s oil passes - if anyone dares attack Tehran in response.

Kurdistan has long been a favoured target of Iran because the US has a strong military presence there. These missiles strikes send a message that is as simple as it is dangerous: wherever you are in the Middle East, we can hit you.

And, as ever, timing is key. Talks between Ira and the so-called P5+1 (the five Security Council powers plus Germany) are stalling. The Iranians are trying to focus minds: reminding everyone of trouble they can cause and the damage they can do if their needs are not met. Once more the message is clear: if you think we’re bad now, just imagine how much worse we can be without a deal to rein us in.

Across the globe, the modern geopolitical settlement is fraying; everywhere nations are trying to test the US. Washington has spent years trying to pressure Saudi Arabia on its human rights records. But over the past 24 hours Riyadh has executed 81 men over the past day, on charges including ‘allegiance to foreign terrorist organisations’ and holding ‘deviant beliefs.’ It’s the largest known mass execution carried out in the kingdom in its modern history. Yes, they thought it would be easier to get away with this while almost all eyes in DC are turned toward Kiev, but they also knew that it would register to some degree, especially with the White House, and they clearly just didn’t care.

States, especially of the rogue variety, tend to do two things when the world is gripped by major crisis like war or plague. The first, is to use the distraction to get away with stuff. And the second is to test the existing order – and especially those who claim to head it – to see just what exactly its limits are.

Biden is facing challenges on all fronts as some of the world’s most egregious states probe his weaknesses like never before. It’s time Biden stepped up and gave the Russians and Iranians – and anyone else who seeks to attack the democratic world – a clear and decisive answer.