How seriously should we take Putin’s nuclear threat?

Vladimir Putin has announced the partial mobilisation of the Russian armed forces. In a pre-recorded address delayed from last night, the Russian president declared that all reservists would be called up for service in Ukraine. Nuclear war, he stressed, was not off the table. 

In tones bordering on the hysterical, Putin declared that Nato leaders had been discussing the possibility and acceptability of using nuclear weapons against Russia: 

‘I want to remind those who allow themselves to make such statements about Russia, we too have various means of destruction at our disposal that are more varied and modern than those owned by Nato countries. If Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened, we will of course use all means available to use for the protection of Russia and our people.’ 

This mine-is-better-than-yours boast will put Kremlin-watchers on edge. While until now the Russian army has been known to rely predominantly on Soviet-era weaponry far less technologically advanced than that supplied to Ukraine, making Putin’s threat of suddenly whipping out weapons more modern than Nato’s unlikely, it is nevertheless a statement of intent. He is willing to strike. 

The mobilisation of the Russian army will, according to Putin, start with those who had already seen active service in specialist positions including as gunners, tankers, signalmen and rocketeers. Following this, the rest of the reserves’ manpower will be called up and finally those who have yet to serve, but who are on the books at enlistment offices will be mobilised. According to a follow up speech given by Russia’s minister of defence Sergei Shoigu, this will apply to approximately 300,000 individuals. As of this morning, those people are banned from leaving the country.

Hunched over a desk as he spoke, he yet again invoked the supposed danger the territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia face at the hands of Ukrainian ‘fascists’. In similar rhetoric used at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was obliged, he said, to protect the rights of these regions to hold referendums on being annexed by Russia: 

‘We have no right to hand over people close to us to be torn to pieces by executioners, we cannot but respond to their desire to determine their own future.’ 

As I wrote yesterday, it is widely expected that these referendums, due to be held over this coming weekend, will be rigged in Russia’s favour.

This announcement marks an escalation of Putin’s war. Providing an insight into his psychology, the goal of the West, he said, was to ‘weaken, divide and destroy’ Russia, splitting it just as the USSR was split in 1991 – a clear indication that Putin considers land beyond Russia’s legal borders (such as in Ukraine) to be his. Nevertheless, throughout the speech the invasion of Ukraine is referred to as a ‘special operation’ not a ‘war’ – he is still, for now, somewhat holding back.

The partial mobilisation of Russia’s forces comes one day after the State Duma introduced a motion to make amendments to the Russian criminal code to increase punishment for desertion, surrender and a refusal to fulfill orders during wartime. In echoes of punishments that awaited Soviet prisoners of war following the second world war, those who surrender to the Ukrainians face up to ten years in prison; going on unauthorised leave for just two days will land soldiers with up to five years in prison – disappearing for a month could land the deserter up to ten years in a penal colony.

For the time being, students and anyone not in the reserves will not be called up to the army. But it seems this will do little to quell fears amongst Russians of imminent mass mobilisation. Following yesterday’s announcement of the referendums, the Russian stock market began to collapse. After this morning’s announcement, it is in free-fall. Google analytics show that searches for ‘how to leave Russia’ spiked in the country yesterday evening. If Putin is trying to provoke the West into direct conflict, he has, so far been unsuccessful. How realistic his threats of nuclear war are remain unclear. But, as the West has learnt over the past seven months, when it comes to Putin’s war, it would be unwise to rule anything out.