What Suella Braverman’s endorsement reveals

Boris Johnson is yet to formally declare that he plans to enter the Tory leadership contest. The former prime minister's meeting with Rishi Sunak last night led to no white smoke or agreement on a joint ticket. His supporters have since been touring the studios this morning insisting he will run and that he has the 100 MP nominations required to make the ballot (even if many are yet to go public). Only there is a growing sense in the party that Johnson's campaign is not going to plan and is losing momentum compared to Sunak's.

Johnson has won the support of one senior cabinet minister today – in the form of Foreign Secretary James Cleverly. But more significant is the endorsement of Suella Braverman. The former home secretary has rowed in behind Sunak. Explaining her decision, Braverman says Johnson was the 'right leader at right time' but adds that the current moment does not call for 'sentimentality': 'We are in dire straits. We need unity, stability and efficiency. Rishi is the only candidate that fits the bill and I am proud to support him'.

This is noteworthy because Johnson's team hoped – and presumed – they would win support from the right of the party. As politicians go, Braverman has long been regarded as a Johnson loyalist. When things started to go wrong for Johnson on partygate, she was one of his most staunch defenders. That she does not think now is the time for his return fits into a wider trend. She joins Steve Baker and Kemi Badenoch in backing Sunak. It also suggests the European Research Group is split on who to back – which makes the arithmetic trickier for Johnson.

Now it's still perfectly possible that Johnson does – as his supporters insist – have 100 MPs who will back him. One senior Tory with experience of the Whips' Office who is not backing Johnson tells me they believe he does probably have the numbers – having looked into it. If so, Johnson can push on and hope the membership will come through for him. His supporters are confident they will. But it's also the case that the endorsements so far point to the fact that many MPs don't support Johnson's return right now. MPs who in the past have been Johnson loyalists are trying to tell the former prime minister this is not his moment – even if a return is possible in the future. If Johnson does still declare and is victorious, he will have a very difficult task on his hand to try to unite the party and govern.