Why a spring return to normal might still be possible

The new mutant strain of Covid-19 is concerning and is likely to make the next few months particularly difficult. But here's the good news: its emergence doesn't necessarily mean that the government's previous optimism about a spring return to normal is off the cards

During this Covid-19 outbreak, a common mistake has been to adopt a binary outlook: things are either good or bad, ‘getting better’ or ‘getting worse’. But pandemics are not linear – they are curves. Things can be getting better in the long term, but worse in the immediate short term. The events of the last few days are a good example. It's worth then seeing the decision to 'cancel Christmas' and the imposition of Tier 4 rules in this wider context.

As for the next few months? They were always going to be bad: NHS capacity is stretched every winter, and increased social contact after the end of the second lockdown meant cases would inevitably start to rise. Unfortunately the new strain means that the winter period will be worse than feared. There will be more infections, more pressure on the NHS, and, sadly, more deaths. 

But come spring there are still plenty of grounds for optimism. While the closure of the port of Dover and the ban on lorries carrying goods into Britain might seem worrying, it's unlikely this will affect the rollout of the vaccine. 

Whatever you think of Brexit, one of the upsides has been that the government has spent the last 18 months mapping supply chains and making contingency plans to ensure medicines could get into the UK in the event of no deal. As a result, it is very unlikely that the vaccine supply chain will be affected by what is happening at Dover.

Of course, if Britain is hit hard by the new mutant strain in the coming weeks, this could still have an impact on vaccine rollout if it means large numbers of health workers – i.e. the ones giving the jabs – have to self-isolate. If this happens, the resulting workforce shortages could slow the rollout. But there is little reason to worry that the jabs themselves will not make their way to Britain.

There is another worry though: will the vaccine prove effective against this new strain of Covid-19? Again, there is good news. There is no evidence that it won’t work against this new strain. And while scientists will be watching carefully, vaccines are by their nature usually effective against different variants and mutations of a virus. Also, while this new mutation might sound alarming, the fact the virus is mutating is perfectly normal. What we should worry about is 'vaccine escape', which occurs when a virus has mutated so much a vaccine isn’t effective. But judging from the tone of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser over the weekend, it doesn’t look like we are anywhere near that point yet, which is encouraging. 

So, yes, the last few days might have looked bleak in Britain's fight against Covid-19, but there are still reasons to be upbeat. The vaccines will arrive and are likely to work. And while the new strain is not good news in the short term, and means the next few weeks will be tough, there is still light at the end of the tunnel.