Will Tugendhat and Badenoch fight on?

Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch have both fought impressive campaigns. They were both relatively unknown before the contest and they've significantly enhanced their reputations. But they are both so far behind it would take a miracle for either of them to reach the magic 120 votes needed to enter the final run-off where members pick the leader from two chosen by MPs (Badenoch needs 71, and Tugendhat 88 – when there are at best just 27 of Braverman's former supporters going begging).

Given that the electorate is 358 MPs who already know them, they would need to have self-belief beyond what is psychologically healthy to think that their relative performances in the TV hustings could launch a bandwagon that would carry them to No. 10. It is possible that one of Sunak, Mordaunt or Truss could totally implode. But presuming such an implosion isn't a strategy.

Realistically Tugendhat and Badenoch are now in the race to secure either policies or a job from the eventual winner, who – barring something extraordinary – looks set (after the members vote in the summer) to be one of Sunak, Mordaunt or Truss. 

The question for Tugendhat and Badenoch is do they fight on, in the hope of gaining more leverage over the eventual winner? Or do they do a murky deal with a candidate they hope will be the victor and bow out now? At this juncture it may be riskier to make the devil's bargain, just in case the devil in question doesn't win, or doesn't honour his or her word. The rational course for both, even if they have no chance of becoming PM, is to roll the dice and make their pitch in the TV hustings.