Matt Cavanagh

Thursday

13 Sep 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Willetts attempts to limit the damage of Coalition immigration policy

There was a flutter of excitement among the Higher Education community this morning, when the education editor of the Times tweeted that David Willetts, the Universities Minister, was about to announce that overseas students would be excluded from net migration figures, and therefore from the Prime Minister’s pledge to reduce net migration to under 100,000 by the election. Straightaway I responded that I thought this unlikely. There is a strong policy case for taking students out of the political 'numbers game' on immigration. Net migration figures are supposed to measure 'long term migration', whereas most overseas students return home fairly quickly. It is increasingly clear that having students inside the target has resulted in policies which are damaging our higher education sector – a sector which is valuable for its economic contribution and export earnings, as well as the longer term cultural and 'soft power' advantages it generates for Britain.

Willetts attempts to limit the damage of Coalition immigration policy

Friday

7 Sep 2012
Matt Cavanagh

What’s in Mark Harper’s immigration in-tray?

As an ambitious young MP rewarded with promotion to Immigration Minister, Mark Harper could be forgiven for viewing the job with mixed emotions. Traditionally one of the most senior ministerial jobs outside Cabinet, it will certainly guarantee him plenty of exposure, but not always for the right reasons. His first and biggest problem is the target the Conservatives have set themselves, to reduce net immigration to under 100,000 a year. The latest figures remain more than double this level, despite a series of controversial reforms, and few observers think the target can be met before the next election. The very idea of ‘net immigration’ doesn’t anyhow seem to capture what voters are worried about, despite being endlessly repeated by ministers, the media, and anti-immigration pressure groups.

What’s in Mark Harper’s immigration in-tray?

Thursday

30 Aug 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Net migration starts to fall – but the real questions remain unanswered

The latest immigration figures published by the ONS today, for the calendar year 2011, show net migration falling for the first time under the coalition – but nowhere near fast enough to give ministers confidence that they will hit their target by 2015. The ONS estimates that immigration last year fell by 25,000, and emigration rose by 11,000, resulting in a drop in net migration of 36,000 – from 252,000 to 216,000. This is in line with my earlier prediction, though the ONS warn that the fall is not statistically significant, and the target of 100,000 still looks a long way away. It is worth noting that despite ministers’ rhetoric, by far the largest contribution to the fall is due to the comings and goings of British citizens: British net migration was down by 28,000, while by comparison net migration from outside the EU was down by only 13,000 – and EU net migration actually rose by a few thousand.

Net migration starts to fall – but the real questions remain unanswered

Wednesday

1 Aug 2012
Matt Cavanagh

ONS blunder lets ministers blame falling real incomes on immigration

Yesterday the ONS published a report showing average disposable incomes at their lowest level since 2003. This is difficult news for ministers: as Isabel pointed out, concerns about the cost of living – stagnant wages and rising prices – are one of the main reasons given by voters in recent polls for turning away from the Conservatives. Imagine, then, how pleased ministers must have been when they saw that the ONS had thrown them a lifeline: the chance to blame it all on immigration. The ONS report discusses the effects of wages and prices, and then adds that ‘finally, sustained population growth led to incomes being spread across a greater number of people, and therefore further reduced the growth of actual income per head over the period’.

ONS blunder lets ministers blame falling real incomes on immigration

Sunday

22 Jul 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Troubled families policy deserves cross-party support

The report published this week by Louise Casey, the Government’s 'Troubled Families' Tsar, has attracted a fair amount of criticism, but what it does illustrate is the chaotic lives these families lead – and the implausibility of thinking that their problems can be solved by the kind of flagship social policies traditionally favoured by either Conservatives or Labour. As Isabel put it, Conservative 'reform of the welfare system will pass many of the families by. In these stories there is no calculated decision to opt out of the labour market because of generous benefits, more an endless failure to cope with life and the way it has worked out'. Likewise, when the Labour government opened a Sure Start centre down the road, these were the families least likely to take advantage of it.

Troubled families policy deserves cross-party support

Tuesday

10 Jul 2012
Matt Cavanagh

A U-turn on international students would be welcome

If you have been confused over the last couple of days by the mixed messages emerging from Downing Street about the government’s policy on international students, you are not alone: the same applies to many figures inside Whitehall.  The Sunday Times reported a Number 10 source saying David Cameron is 'definitely considering a change in policy', 'fearing the UK could lose billions if students are caught up in the pledge to reduce net migration to below 100,000 by 2015'. The Mail followed up the story in its leader on Monday, endorsing it but suggesting it would be a mistake – and blaming it on the Lib Dems. But since then Downing Street has distanced itself from any talk of a U-turn; and the Home Office has unveiled its latest policy changes on student visas, re-introducing interviews for some applications and giving immigration officials broader powers to turn them down – and boasting that student numbers have already been cut by over 20 per cent.

A U-turn on international students would be welcome

Monday

18 Jun 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Foxhound arrives in Afghanistan – five years too late

There was welcome news yesterday for our forces in Afghanistan, and for those who want to see them supplied with the best equipment, with pictures of the first ‘Foxhound’ patrol vehicles arriving in Helmand. Foxhound is the long-awaited replacement for the Snatch Land Rover, whose inadequate protection against Improvised Explosive Devices in Iraq and then Afghanistan became glaringly obvious as far back as 2005. In the intervening years, the Ministry of Defence has procured a number of vehicles offering much better protection, starting with the Mastiff in late 2006. However, the greater protection of these vehicles came at a price, in terms of weight and manoeuvrability (and air-transportability): the Mastiff weighs well over 20 tons — even the smaller ‘Ridgeback’ variant which arrived in Helmand in 2009 weighed 18 tons — compared to less than 5 tons for the Snatch.

Foxhound arrives in Afghanistan – five years too late

Thursday

7 Jun 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Ed Miliband embraces Englishness, but still has to grasp the nettle on immigration

I hope that CoffeeHousers, regardless of political affiliation, will welcome a speech by a Labour leader that is explicitly patriotic, about England as well as the United Kingdom. As Ed Miliband said today, Labour has too often seemed either uninterested in Englishness or embarrassed by it, when there is nothing in its history and values that justifies this. Miliband was also right to emphasise the legitimacy and strength of ‘multiple identities’ — whether English and British, Scottish and British, Indian and British, or British and Muslim. And he was right to urge the English to ‘embrace a positive, outward looking version’ of national identity. Ideas of national identity that are essentially negative — shaped by a common enemy or an existential threat — are easier to build and almost always more powerful.

Ed Miliband embraces Englishness, but still has to grasp the nettle on immigration

Monday

14 May 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Another voice: How ministers are gaming the net migration target

International students are currently the largest single category of immigrants who count in the net migration figures, which cover all those intending to stay more than a year. In the most recent figures (the year to June 2011) there were 242,000 such students — making up 40 per cent of so-called ‘long term’ immigration. However, as a new report by IPPR sets out, international students are not really ‘long term’ immigrants at all. They are far more likely to return home after a few years than the other main immigration categories of work and family: the evidence suggests only around 15 per cent stay permanently. Clearly, it would be wrong for the government to exclude incoming international students from the immigration figures without also excluding from the emigration figures those students who came in earlier years and are now returning home.

Another voice: How ministers are gaming the net migration target

Wednesday

28 Mar 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Riots report undermines the Tory diagnosis, but spreads itself too thin

After last August’s riots the debate became quickly polarised. Were socio-economic factors like unemployment to blame, or was it all down to the individual choices of the rioters? David Cameron and other Conservative ministers knew which side of this debate they wanted to be on. They had been taken by surprise by the riots, initially failing to realise how serious things were, but when they got back from their holidays they set out a clear and confident line, brushing off most questions about links to the state of the economy or youth attitudes, and condemning the riots as ‘criminality pure and simple’. The soundbite was deliberately simplistic; Conservative ministers’ actual views were more complex.

Riots report undermines the Tory diagnosis, but spreads itself too thin

Monday

26 Mar 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Replacing control orders: an unsatisfactory compromise 

A small silver lining for David Cameron in the ‘cash for access scandal’: on a quieter day, today’s report on the coalition’s replacement of control orders with ‘Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures’ (TPIMs) might have got more attention. The report, published by the Independent Reviewer of counter-terrorism legislation, David Anderson QC, makes for difficult reading for ministers. Before looking at the detail of the report, it is worth remembering that control orders were always a second-best policy. Their origin lies in the dilemma, which no government looks likely to solve any time soon, of what to do with someone whom the authorities suspect of involvement in terrorism, but who cannot be prosecuted — nor, if they are a foreign national, deported.

Replacing control orders: an unsatisfactory compromise 

Tuesday

28 Feb 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Why the immigration cap isn’t biting — and why that is good news

The government’s official advisers on immigration, the Migration Advisory Committee, have today published a report into the restrictions on skilled migrant workers from outside the EU. Turns out that the much-vaunted ‘cap’ on skilled workers has only been half taken up — with numbers likely to be around 10,000 against the cap of 20,700 — and that this is offset by the high numbers of workers, around 30,000, coming to the UK on ‘intra-company transfers’. (These transfers are designed for multinational companies wanting the flexibility to move their employees around the world: the example used by the Committee’s chairman today was of ‘Japanese auto-engineers testing cylinder-heads made in Japan’ for cars being assembled in the UK.

Why the immigration cap isn’t biting — and why that is good news

Thursday

23 Feb 2012
Matt Cavanagh

The infantryman’s struggle in Afghanistan

If you have an interest in the military campaign in Afghanistan, or in modern film-making — and if you have a strong stomach — I would strongly recommend Hell and Back Again, a contender in the Best Documentary category at the Oscars this weekend. Despite winning the World Documentary prize at Sundance last year, it had a very limited cinema release (not unusually for a documentary) and is yet to break even worldwide, though that may be about to change. The main difference with the other equally impressive but better-known documentaries on the Afghan campaign, Restrepo and Armadillo, is the film’s individual focus. It concentrates on a single US Marine, Sergeant Nathan Harris, following him through a tour in Afghanistan, and after his return home.

Monday

20 Feb 2012
Matt Cavanagh

The implications of today’s border security report

Today brought closure of a kind to last year’s border fiasco (which I covered for Coffee House here and here), with the publication of the report by the Chief Inspector of the UK Border Agency, John Vine. On first reading, there is no ‘smoking gun’ which would trigger a ministerial resignation. The report does find that, in early 2011, the immigration minister Damian Green had authorised the relaxation of one of the checks at the centre of the controversy: ‘Secure ID’, which verifies the fingerprints of foreign travellers with visas. But the report also finds that Green’s authorisation should have been superseded by later instructions from the Home Secretary Theresa May. To the extent that this check continued to be relaxed during the summer, the responsibility does lie with officials not ministers.

The implications of today’s border security report

Wednesday

15 Feb 2012
Matt Cavanagh

How to implement a minimum price for alcohol

Pete posted earlier on the Prime Minister’s latest intervention on the issue of problem drinking. The new proposals — like a greater police presence in A&Es, and ‘drunk tanks’, special units where drunks are taken to sober up — are sensible enough, but seem small relative to the scale of the supposed problem, and focus on peripheral (though important) side-effects, rather than the core of the issue. The ‘big idea’ seems to be missing, even though the Conservatives have been flirting with it for some years, is a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol: far more controversial, but potentially far more effective. The last Labour government, in which I was an adviser, looked at this idea in some depth. I was attracted to it, but believed we should pursue the same objective in a different way: namely, by fixing an effective MUP through increases in alcohol duty (together with a ban on selling alcohol below the level of duty).

How to implement a minimum price for alcohol

Wednesday

1 Feb 2012
Matt Cavanagh

The MoD wastes another opportunity

Today’s White Paper on defence procurement makes disappointing reading for the UK defence industry — and for anyone who believes that one of the lessons of the last few years is that we need a more active industrial policy. IPPR set out the case in a recent report on globalisation, arguing for sustained support for industries, like defence, which have high potential for growth, for exports, and for high-skill manufacturing jobs. We need robust safeguards on the sale of defence equipment to repressive regimes, as well as greater transparency on government lobbying to avoid a return to the bad old days of the Pergau Dam — or minor embarrassments like David Cameron’s attempt to rebadge an export drive in the Gulf as a tour of the Arab Spring.

The MoD wastes another opportunity

Thursday

19 Jan 2012
Matt Cavanagh

The Home Office still hasn’t cleared up its border issues

Remember Theresa May's border skirmish against Brodie Clark back in November? This morning the Home Affairs Select Committee published their report into the whole affair. Ideally it would have cleared up some of the confusions over who was responsible for waiving various security checks at our borders last summer, and whether they were right to do so — but it doesn't really manage it. This is not really the fault of the committee: some of the crucial questions they put to the Home Office remain unanswered, and key documents have not been released to them. For example, Mr Clark claims he raised the issue of the ‘health and safety’ waivers in a presentation to the Border Agency strategy board in December 2010, but other senior officials claim he mentioned it only briefly in passing.

The Home Office still hasn’t cleared up its border issues

Sunday

1 Jan 2012
Matt Cavanagh

Immigration to fall in 2012 — but still not on track to hit the Tory target

Immigration will remain at the heart of political debate in 2012. Economic downturns tend to heighten concerns about migrants competing for jobs and depressing wages, and spending cuts tend to sharpen resentment over migrants claiming benefits or adding to pressure on public services. The latest e-petition to garner a hundred thousand signatures will get its reward of a day in parliament, debating the effects of immigration on Britain’s growing population. And while Labour and the Liberal Democrats might be reluctant to talk about immigration, the Tory leadership clearly see it as useful in handling those on the right who are unhappy with life in coalition — commentators as well as backbench MPs. This is also the year in which the Conservatives will move past the half-way mark of a parliament in which they have committed to cut net immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’.

Immigration to fall in 2012 — but still not on track to hit the Tory target

Thursday

15 Dec 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Dave’s ‘troubleshooters’ policy is right — but it needs working on

David Cameron has finally announced the way forward on his pledge to ‘turn round the lives of 120,000 of Britain’s troubled families’ — and it is good news. These families combine behaviour that is harmful or disruptive to the rest of society with reliance on benefits, social housing and other services, reinforcing the sense that they are taking a lot from their fellow citizens while giving nothing positive back. And although dealing with their problems is expensive, they already cost government and society a lot of money, as the Prime Minister is rightly emphasising today.  He actually made this pledge a year ago, ‘based on the broken society’ agenda he brought in from opposition, but has admitted that he was distracted by other priorities and allowed the initiative to get bogged down in bureaucracy — until the riots, that is, when he said it was ‘back at the top of my political agenda’.

Dave’s ‘troubleshooters’ policy is right — but it needs working on

Wednesday

16 Nov 2011
Matt Cavanagh

The Tories may have left it too late for that realistic debate about border security

Another day of bad headlines about border security is, in the end, a bad day for the Home Secretary, whoever ends up getting the blame. Yesterday morning brought further revelations in the newspapers; and then at lunchtime, Brodie Clark, the senior official who was first suspended and then resigned over the affair, made his much anticipated appearance before the Home Affairs Select Committee. Meanwhile, over in the House of Commons, the immigration minister Damian Green had been summoned to answer an urgent question about further alleged border lapses. By the evening, the story was once again leading the national news. Nevertheless, as the dust settles, Theresa May is still there — and, if anything, slightly less vulnerable than before.

The Tories may have left it too late for that realistic debate about border security

Tuesday

8 Nov 2011
Matt Cavanagh

‘Guest worker’ plan would hurt the economy

The economists who advise the Home Office on immigration policy have come out against a plan to turn economic migrants into 'guest workers'. Last week, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) published their response to the government's proposals on restricting settlement rights for skilled workers from outside the EU. With all the debate around David Cameron's pledge to cut net immigration to the 'tens of thousands', many of the detailed policies for achieving that overall aim have been somewhat neglected. It should be clear, however, that these particular proposals would represent a very significant change, with serious implications for employers. While a few exceptional migrant workers would be invited to stay, the great majority would be told to leave after a maximum of five years, regardless of how well they are doing in their job and what contribution they have made.

‘Guest worker’ plan would hurt the economy

Saturday

5 Nov 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Britannia waives the rules

Today’s immigration headlines have a familiar feel. Twenty four hours after embarrassing revelations about a hundred thousand asylum case files being quietly written off, we now learn that at certain times over the summer, UK Border Agency staff were told not to bother checking people’s passports, or checking them against watch lists for crime and terrorism. The media are understandably dusting off old headlines about our borders being "out of control", and the Home Office being "not fit for purpose". The strategy of Conservative ministers in the Home Office is already clear: on the first story, blame the previous government, and on the second, blame the officials, with a number of senior executives being named and suspended.

Britannia waives the rules

Sunday

16 Oct 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Voters support lower immigration, but not the government’s policies

A major new survey of public opinion on immigration, published today by the recently-established Migration Observatory, should prove troubling reading for realists inside the Conservative party. As yet, the opposition are not threatening them on the issue – Labour still find it easiest to get noticed when they are apologising for their own record – and the general thrust of the Conservative approach, that immigration has been too high and must be reduced, is clearly very popular. But they have two problems. First, hardly anyone believes the government will actually deliver on their promises. A recent YouGov poll found 78 per cent believe it unlikely they would succeed in reducing annual net migration "from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands".

Voters support lower immigration, but not the government’s policies

Wednesday

31 Aug 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Right to reply: Why do so many “new jobs” go to foreigners?

On Monday, we published a post on George Osborne's "jobless recovery" — the point being that 90 per cent of the recent rise in employment can be accounted for by foreign nationals. Here's a counterpunch to it from the IPPR's Matt Cavanagh, who should already be familiar to CoffeeHousers from his previous posts and articles for us on matters military. We're hoping that this will be the first of a new series of "Right to reply" posts, giving outside writers the opportunity to take on your loyal baristas in mortal combat. Here goes: One of the most frequently recycled statistics of recent years is the percentage of "new jobs going to foreigners". The first thing to say is that this is a bad way to phrase it.

Right to reply: Why do so many “new jobs” go to foreigners?

Wednesday

3 Aug 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Decisions that may come to determine the Coalition’s stewardship of defence

The House of Commons Defence Committee moves at a stately pace. Two weeks back, it gave us its considered view on the British military campaign in southern Afghanistan – a report which might have been quite useful a couple of years ago. Today it has published its verdict on October’s National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review – nine months after their launch, with many of the decisions now irreversible, and with MPs and much of the media on holiday. The headline findings are not surprising, but make for bracing reading nonetheless. They are summarised on the front page of the Telegraph: the SDSR was a rushed exercise, driven by money rather than strategy, and the cuts will leave our armed forces struggling “to do all that is asked of them”, will reduce our international influence, and could jeopardise our national security.

Decisions that may come to determine the Coalition’s stewardship of defence

Monday

18 Jul 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Missing the target

It has been a mixed week for Parliamentary Select Committees: they have regained some of their bite, but recent events have also served to remind us of their supine performances in the past. Yesterday it was the turn of the Defence Committee to seek our attention, briefing their latest report on the British military campaign in Helmand to the Sunday Telegraph. Under the headline ‘British Force Was Too Weak to Defeat Taliban’, we read of ‘a devastating report’ which is ‘deeply critical of senior commanders and government ministers’. But, the Committee have got some fairly crucial things wrong. They conclude that the task force was ‘capped at 3,150 for financial reasons’. This is untrue: more important than finances was the ongoing commitment in Iraq, together with the Army’s own ‘cap’ on the number of soldiers it could deploy on a sustainable basis across both operations.

Missing the target

Thursday

2 Jun 2011
Matt Cavanagh

Where we are in Afghanistan

I wrote back in November that as we approached the July deadline when President Obama promised to start drawing down troops from Afghanistan, the tensions between politicians and military would re-emerge, as “the military ask for more time to get it right, and Obama tries to hold them to the deal he thought he made in late 2009”. This is now coming to pass, in London as well as Washington. I also argued that having some sort of public timetable for the troop drawdown was a reasonable solution, perhaps the only solution, to the politicians’ problem of balancing conflicting messages to different audiences in Afghanistan and at home. But the military do have a legitimate complaint about the particular dates the politicians have chosen, which sacrifice the natural campaign timetable to its political counterpart: Obama’s July start-date is driven by the long run up to the next American election, Cameron’s 2015 end-date by the British one.

Where we are in Afghanistan

Sunday

15 May 2011
Matt Cavanagh

How to fix the National Security Council

The National Security Council was a sound idea. But it has disappointed, both inside and outside Whitehall. The Ministry of Defence has complained that it "failed to give strategic direction". Among previous supporters in the media, Con Coughlin has commented sourly that “all it has achieved so far is the replacement of Blair’s much-derided ‘sofa government’ with a new, back-of-the-envelope approach”. James Kirkup was even driven to ask “What exactly is the point of it?” Where did things go wrong? First, it seems that more effort went into spinning it to the media — it was a ‘War Cabinet’ to Sun readers, an end to ‘sofa government’ to those disaffected by Iraq — than actual design and implementation.

How to fix the National Security Council
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