Susanne Mundschenk | The Spectator columnists & writers

Le Pen, Zemmour and the two French far rights

Just about two months ahead of the French elections, a first poll for Le Parisién suggests that Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour are at the same level: 14 per cent. This is one out of many polls, most of which still show Le Pen ahead. But polls have been bad predictors in the past, and they can create their own momentum. Both Le Pen and Zemmour held big rallies this weekend. We now see two different economic visions emerging: one social, one liberal. The only economic point that the two have in common is that they both want social services to be accessible only to the French, not to immigrants. On everything else, the candidates are miles apart. Le Pen’s vision is aimed at the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Zemmour’s appeals to conservative France.

Europe’s emerging energy crisis

After the pandemic, is energy the next European crisis? Gas prices have hit new records, reaching $180 per barrel in the Netherlands, representing a fivefold increase over the past six months. This is driven by news that Russia has diverged gas flows from its main European pipeline to one that is going east via Poland. Experts are pondering over the reasons, be it geopolitical muscle-flexing or the fact that Russia is hit by a cold front of minus 20 degrees. The results are the same: Vladimir Putin promised more gas for Europe, and it is still not coming. The prospect of a Russian invasion in Ukraine just adds more uncertainty and pressure on the market. Europe still depends on Russian gas, amounting to 35 per cent of European supply.

The fifth wave could break Macron

The fifth Covid wave has started in Europe. Some governments are already imposing lockdowns and wage cuts for the unvaccinated as hospitals are filling up. Mass protests against restrictions are popping up, some peaceful like in Austria, others turning violent like in the Netherlands and Belgium. A nationwide lockdown in Germany is unlikely, but local lockdowns may happen if hospitalisation rates continue to shoot up. Some patients in Bavaria have already been sent to Italian hospitals due to under-capacity, a reversal of what happened in the first wave. France is still counting on getting through the fifth wave with no restrictions. With only five months to go before the presidential elections, these decisions will decide the fate of Emmanuel Macron.

Don’t underestimate Barnier

No one really expects Michel Barnier to be chosen as the Républicains's candidate for the French presidency. Success in Brussels does not make it easier to win at home. The most famous example of this rule is Martin Schulz, who returned from a long career in Brussels to become German SPD leader and chancellor candidate in 2017. He was seen as a political curiosity partly because he was unknown. But he couldn't keep up the momentum after German voters saw him on the domestic stage. Brussels insiders become detached from what's going on at home. It is much easier to go to Brussels than it is to come back. But don't write Barnier off just yet. He remained more connected to French politics than Schulz was to Germany.

Is Eric Zemmour France’s answer to Trump?

Eric Zemmour, a right-wing French essayist, has had a stellar rise in the media and public opinion. He has now reached 17 per cent in the latest Harris Interactive poll for the first round if he were to run as a candidate. After Macron’s ascent to power from nowhere only five years ago, will Zemmour become the Donald Trump of French politics? It looks unlikely. Zemmour certainly hit a raw nerve with his anti-immigrant theme, but whether he can dominate the campaign will depend on events outside of his control. If the voters' concern turns towards the energy crisis and purchasing power, Zemmour would be without an offer. But in this post-truth world, he attracts frustrated voters with his half-truths and lies about history, and his outspokenness on subjects others would not dare to address.

The EU’s carbon border tax hits roadblocks

The European Commission's Fit-for-55 emission plan, with its extended emission trading scheme and the new carbon border tax, will be fighting an uphill battle. The carbon border tax scheme — the first of its kind in the world — could become Europe's opening bid to get moving internationally beyond mere discussions. If there is an international agreement in the end, it would have served a purpose. If not, it may only end up creating new battle lines between trading partners. There may be broad consensus on the goal of reducing carbon emissions, but questions remain: who is to shoulder the bill? The carbon border adjustment mechanism, CBAM, is expected to be levied on imports of iron and steel, cement, aluminium, fertilisers and electricity.

Should flights be taxed more?

The European Commission is set to propose EU-wide minimum taxes on kerosene, the fuel for planes, as part of their EU energy taxation plans to meet the new eco 2030 targets. However, it remains to be seen if this tax will be agreed by all member states, as taxation issues require unanimity. A leaked draft from the Commission proposes a minimum tax on flights inside the EU. Freight flights are to be exempted, so as not to give a competitive advantage to non-EU competitors, which could be seen as a muddled approach to satisfy too many objectives at once. And there are alternatives, such as including aviation companies in the CO2 emissions trading. Why do planes not have to pay taxes on their fuel? The tax-free fuel for planes goes back to the Chicago Agreement of 1944, which intended to help the aviation business to take off.

Is Marine Le Pen’s presidential bid doomed?

Nothing went as predicted in France's regional elections. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National did not win a single region and Emmanuel Macron's La République en Marche failed to grow roots in local government, or even act as a kingmaker. All incumbent regional candidates were re-elected, sometimes with quite a comfortable margin. Does this mean we are back to the good old left-right divide in French politics? Regional elections are not national elections, of course. Abstention reached a record high in this election and voters from RN and LREM have shunned the regional vote more than left-wing and conservative voters. Still, those regional elections challenge two important narratives that Macron had been relying on in the past: one is that the LREM will revolutionise and rejuvenate the political landscape.

France’s latest fiscal trade-off

France’s deficit is set to reach 9.4 per cent of GDP this year, more than last year, even though France's first lockdown was more severe and lasted for a longer time. This may relate to accounting issues, as some spending is only reported this year even if it is related to last year. But these are details – the main issue is something else entirely. The journalist Dominique Seux wonders whether France has maxed out its spending capacity at the moment when environmental challenges require extraordinary efforts. Were France's spending choices last year done with full awareness of how they would compromise future fiscal room for manoeuvre? France was always amongst the high deficit countries in the EU. There was always a reason to justify its higher-than-expected deficits: the economic situation, social tensions and the forever promise of investment into the future.

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