Could Russia stoke conflict between Serbia and Kosovo?

The prime minister of Kosovo has been talking about a possible war in the country, with Russia as the instigator. In an interview with La Repubblica, Albin Kurti said: 'The risk of a new conflict between Kosovo and Serbia is high. I would be irresponsible to say otherwise, especially since the world has seen what Russia has done to Ukraine. We are a democracy bordering on an autocracy, after all. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the opportunities were few, now the situation has changed.

'The first episode, a consequence of the Kremlin’s fascist idea of ​​Pan-Slavism, was Ukraine. If we have a second episode, for example in Transnistria, then the chances that a third war will take place in the Western Balkans, in particular in Kosovo, will be very high.'

Should we be worried? The BBC on Sunday carried a highly-charged interview with the Kosovan president, Vjosa Osmani, who declared that the situation of Kosovo in respect of Serbia, with Russia at its back, was more or less that of West against East, democracy versus autocracy. And ever since that regrettable incident in Sarajevo in many Augusts ago, the very mention of trouble in the Balkans makes everyone twitchy.

I’d say we should calm down. Not that I’m infallible; I was the one who went around saying that Russia would never invade Ukraine. But although there are tensions between Kosovo and Serbia, they are very unlikely to lead to war. Certainly Russia takes a proprietorial approach to Serbia; Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, often talks about Kosovo as an object lesson in how not to conduct international affairs. And there have been some ugly incidents lately: attacks on guards on the northern border at Mitrovica; a demonstration about Kosovan Serbs having to use car licences issued in Pristina; and a rather obvious Russian female spy arrested lately at the Kosovan border. All very inflammatory but none of it new, except the exciting spy. 

Certainly, Russia may be behind incidents like shooting border guards, but Serbia is the real player in Mitrovica and hardly needs outside prompting. What’s important here is that the long-running talks between Serbia and Kosovo, which have been underway for some years, have got precisely nowhere.

There is, moreover, good reason for both the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vucic, and the Kosovan PM to talk up the tensions in order to distract attention from their own domestic problems. The economic situation in Kosovo is particularly dire; tens of thousands of young Albanians leave the country every year, many of the best educated creamed off by Germany; medics, for instance, are scooped up from university for the German health service, with the inevitable consequence for the domestic health system. There’s a dearth of foreign investment, high unemployment and the rule of law is problematic. So a distraction from state failures in a standoff in northern Kosovo is useful for both governments.

But the obvious reason why war is very unlikely to happen is that the Americans, whose control over what happens in Kosovo can hardly be overstated, won’t let it. They have a military base in Kosovo and air support within easy reach. KFOR (the Nato-led Kosovan peacekeeping force with over 3,000 international personnel) is still in Kosovo and Italian troops are very visible around Mitrovica. Britain, too, is training Kosovan defence forces. In other words, we are not in a Ukraine style situation. We’re not even close. There’s plenty to be concerned about in the former Yugoslavia, but it’s not August 1914, or even April 2022. Calm down, everyone.